The Maximum PC crew predicts what we'll see in Dream Machine 2020
Back in 2011, we made predictions for how Dream Machine 2015 would turn out. With Dream Machine 2015 now launched, it was fun looking back at what we got right (along with what we got terribly wrong). Having said that, we wanted to give our future selves something to reflect back on in five years. That's why we're giving you our predictions for how we think Dream Machine 2020 will turn out.
Have a prediction of your own? Let us know in the comments below!
Jimmy Thang, Online Managing Editor:
By 2020, you'll be able to squeeze more power out of Mini-ITX boxes than this year's current Dream Machine, but because you can always get more power in a bigger box, we're going to still be using a Full Tower setup.
For the CPU, we'll be able to push the clocks over 5GHz, maybe around 5.5GHz. Of course, we'll be using a high-end custom loop cooler. I also think we'll see more cores with Intel's latest CPU, and if I had to guess, I'd say we'll get 12 physical cores.
For the graphics, I think we'll finally be able to push the four GPU barrier and we'll be able to squeeze in five or more graphics cards. We will, of course, still be limited by a 1,600-watt PSU, however, considering US wall sockets will still only really be able to provide 1,600 watts of power. With hardware becoming more power-efficient every year, however, I think we'll be able to accommodate the load.
For the display, UHD resolutions will be as commonplace as 1080p is today, so I think we'll see something in the realm of an 8K display for Dream Machine 2020. Speaking of displays, I think by 2020, we'll also include a VR headset as an accessory, sort of like how we include peripherals like mouse and keyboard into the Dream Machine. The VR headset will support 144Hz and support 4K or higher resolution.
For storage, I think Intel and Micron's work in 3D XPoint technology will be fruitful over the years, with the companies saying that the new non-volitile memory solution is 1,000x faster than modern NAND technology. This cutting-edge technology also purports to replace traditional system RAM, so I think we'll also see 3D XPoint technology be used there as well. In terms of storage, I think we'll see over 32TB of this 3D XPoint storage and 256GB of system RAM (that number is absurdly crazy, but hey, this is Dream Machine). I think we will finally move away from traditional spinning hard drives.
How will you be able to use up all that 3D XPoint storage space, you ask? I think fiber Internet will be much more common by 2020, at least in the San Francisco Bay Area. Toto, we're not just in Kansas anymore.
Other than that, I think we'll see USB type C be as commonplace on the motherboard as much as USB 3.0 is on mobos today.
As long as the personal computer has been around, I've never ceased being amazed by the level of detail and innovation that goes into PC technology. I won't be surprised if something new, however small, completely catches me off guard for Dream Machine 2020.
Jarred Walton, Senior Editor:
Hardware updates have been stuck at a major plateau for a while, as evidenced by the slowing down of clock speeds and even the lack of increased core counts. Five years ago, the latest and greatest Intel CPUs were Lynnfield i7-875K running 4/8 cores/threads at up to 3.6GHz (stock), or you were on the enthusiast LGA1366 platform running 6/12 cores/threads with Gulftown i7-980X, again at up to 3.6GHz stock. Without going to the Xeon parts, we've added just two cores and less than 800MHz in five years. It would be fun to predict we'll all be running 40-core processors at 8GHz in five years, but it's not happening. Moderate progress is the new standard for processors, so while the model names may not be accurate, in some areas the actual hardware in 2020 won't be all that radical compared to our present day.
But screw moderation! Other technologies stand ready to shake things up, with XPoint being a major driving force: 1,000X the performance of NAND, 1,000X the endurance, and 10X the capacity? Can you imagine what that might mean for the coming years? We'll see XPoint in storage, memory, and even CPUs/GPUs. Or else we'll have a good laugh at how far off the mark I was in five years; either way, let's have some fun!
By 2020, Intel will have rolled out their 7nm process technology, and they will finally offer eight cores in their mainstream parts, codenamed Hotmagma. These will still top out at a relatively modest 4.6GHz stock with a 75W TDP, but overclocking on air to 5GHz and more is no longer a pipe dream, and liquid cooling will routinely hit 5.5GHz (at 150W TDP). Perhaps more impressive is that we'll be at 10 billion transistors in a mainstream i7-22700K, and with all those transistors Intel will have processor graphics at a level equal to our present day GTX 970. Intel's Xpoint Technology will have made its way into CPUs, and Hotmagma will ship with 16GB XPR (XPoint RAM) as part of the package—only users that need more than 16GB will even bother with additional memory. This will be in addition to the 512MB XPoint-based L3 cache.
Of course, this is Dream Machine 2020, so we don't even care about the mainstream Z570 platform. For enthusiasts, Intel will have their Lavarocket-E processors on the X490 chipset, with the i7-22990X running 20 cores. Intel will have Hyper-Threading 3.0 by then, providing a virtual three threads per core, yielding a 20-core/60-thread processor. This we'll overclock to 5.5GHz with liquid cooling, naturally. The 16GB XPR will still be part of the package, functioning as an L4 cache similar to the current eDRAM, except with 4TB/s of low latency bandwidth; the XPoint-based L3 cache meanwhile will be a whopping 1GB. For those that need more memory, X490 will have a high-speed serial interface that allows the use of off-package XPR-DIMMs. We'll have 192GB spread across six 32GB modules in a triple-channel configuration, delivering a staggering 384GB/s of system memory bandwidth.
Graphics isn't standing still either. Using 10nm FinFET technology, we'll have two of Nvidia's GeForce GTX Titan Z4 cards sitting in the two dedicated graphics ports. The limitations of the PCI Express interface required some changes, but the result has been a massive increase in bandwidth, from today's 16GB/s of x16 PCIe 3.0 to 128GB/s per XGP slot. DX12 and Vulkan have also provided game developers with new ways to utilize multiple GPUs, so each of the Titan Z4 cards actually contains four separate GPUs. We'd add more, but we're limited to two XGP slots. We're also power constrained at 500W per XGP slot, and our 1600W PSU is similarly limited by our 15A power outlets. All eight GPU cores will be needed to push pixels to our dual 46-inch 8K displays—we figured it would be a nice match to the latest Oculus Rift 16K VR headsets.
Storage, of course, had a major revolution with XPoint several years back, to the point where few if any consumer-level applications even care about having the fastest SSD. Besides, the link between the CPU and the chipset is still the limiting factor on storage performance, though we'd hardly call the six 20TB XSSDs running in RAID 6 a bottleneck. They're fully capable of saturating the 32GB/s link between the X490 chipset and the CPU, with peak IO of nearly 8 million random IOPS. The only thing slowing down application load times and OS boot times now is the CPU, but most systems now run 24/7 with a pseudo-sleep mode that allows them to wake instantly and respond to user input.
The problem of software lagging farther and farther behind has also been addressed. Windows 10 is now simply called Windows, with regular updates delivered as Microsoft sees fit. There's a VR GUI that looks cool, and machine learning has made interacting with the OS far more natural, with virtual personalized assistants keeping tabs on their users and helping them through the day. The uber-nerds walk around with glasses derived from Hololens that talk to the home PC, providing real-time assistance. The compute power required at home has reinvigorated the desktop PC market, and high-speed 5G connectivity and altered-reality glasses mean most people are now constantly linked up with their home system.
Of course, there's a dark side, and many couples have broken up due to "virtual relationships" that have developed between users and their digital assistants. Jobs have been lost as well and there's currently a trial with an employer suing to block a former employee's access to his "old" assistant. Privacy has become increasingly problematic, and a growing movement is urging users to "opt out" of the Internet in protest. It makes little difference, however, as monitoring and surveillance keeps tabs on these dissidents. It may not be Skynet, but Big Brother is most definitely watching, and he's ready to help should you need him.
Alex Campbell, Associate Editor:
If there's one thing that's been at the core of modern computing, it's the element silicon (Si). Silicon is one of the most common elements found on earth. It's in sand, glass, and processors. Without silicon semiconductors, we don't have i7s, Titan Xs, or motherboard chipsets. There are other compounds that are showing promise in semiconductor applications though.
You've probably heard of graphene, unless you've been living under a rock for the last couple of years. Graphene is exciting because it flexible, can be used as a semiconductor and is thin. When we say thin, we mean really, really thin: We're talking one atom thick. Graphene's minuscule thickness and flexibility means that, in theory, engineers will be able to create really small and flexible integrated circuits. The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) published a story last year about how IBM tested graphene integrated circuits that could are compete head-to-head with their silicon-based counterparts. All hail carbon.
This is exciting for form factors, and leaves the door open for custom designs from manufacturers. However, I think most of the form factor innovations will be in displays and wearables, not necessarily motherboards and graphics cards (and certainly not by 2020). I don't think we'll see too much of a departure from the ATX or ITX form factors due to legacy support, but the material opens the gates for engineers when it comes to form.
Another material I found on IEEE's website that's being tested is molybdenum ditelluride (MoTe2). According to the IEEE article, researchers found that when they shot a laser at a MoTe2 sample, the sample thinned and formed two layers: a top metallic layer, and a bottom semiconductive layer. While this doesn't sound as impressive as graphene's sexy, flexy slimness, it is interesting: It allows MoTe2 to be closer to a drop-in replacement for silicon. Since the top layer is metallic, it allows for gold or aluminum connections to the metals on the PCB, the article said. That metallic layer is seamlessly blended into the semiconducting layer of the material, meaning that there is a smoother path for electrons to flow. In short, that means faster communication (the IEEE report said it was 10 to 50 times faster than silicon) between the semiconductor and the metal. The report also said that the voltage requirement for MoTe2 1 eV is on par with silicon's 1.1 eV.
So, while silicon will maintain its position for some time, we may start to see chips made from other materials like graphene or MoTe2. Whether they make it into consumer CPUs and parts by 2020 is up in the air, but I'm hoping for it, because I'd want to see them in the Dream Machine for sure.
When it comes to software, I lean far more into the ring of the free and open-source camp. I'd love to see Dream Machine 2020 rocking a Linux distribution. (Arch Linux running a 6.0 kernel?) If Steam machines take off and don't flop, there will be a clear incentive for developers to write engines using OpenGL and other open APIs, instead of DirectX. After all, when it comes to gamers, DirectX is the only real thing (in my mind) keeping them on the Windows platform. If that happens, we'll likely see a vast improvement in graphics driver binaries available to Linux.
As for storage, I'm betting NVMe will overtake SATA. (By the way, how many SATA express drives have you ever seen in person?) The real trick is to find a form factor that takes NVMe away from the PCIe slots. As we're talking about a Dream Machine, we'll have all of the physical space in the PCI region of the mobo taken up by graphics cards. There's no room for RAID or NVMe cards when you've got a block of four (or six?) graphics cards.
We're also likely to see solid state drives over the terabyte mark get cheaper and cheaper, meaning the eventual death of the spinning HDD in desktop systems. Even though NAND flash memory in desktop applications is much younger than the spinning hard drive technology, storage capacity has jumped up in far less time than it took spinning platters. Samsung unveiled a 16TB SSD in August, and that's in a 2.5-inch package. Just imagine what you could pack into a 3.5-inch form factor. There's little doubt that prices will come down for high-density SSDs as competitors crowd the field over the next few years. I think that Dream Machine 2020 will lose the need for HDDs completely, but there may still be an application as a cheap archival medium for data. That said, the only moving parts we're likely to see in 2020 will be the fans and pumps. The HDD's desktop days are numbered.
And optical drives? I consider those mostly dead now. But you can bet your ass Microsoft will offer the retail version of Windows on a DVD or BluRay in 2020, meaning that you'll still need a $20 drive.
Tuan Nguyen, Editor-in-Chief:
Let's first consider where we are now: Consumer CPUs are squarely focused on power efficiency. Consider too that the mobile market is dominating the desktop PC market in terms of units moved. Unlike the fantastical predictions of our other editors, mine is likely going to be a bit more tame. CPUs will likely hit a 12-core standard for high-performance desktop configurations, and likely eight cores for average consumer machines. Meaning, you're not going to get access to 12 cores unless you're willing to spend $1,500 or more—which by standards of a few short years ago, is quite astonishing.
What about frequency? Well, considering that there's a huge focus on making CPUs more mobile friendly, ramping up frequencies isn't going to be a priority. For desktops, we'll likely stay around the 4GHz ceiling. Instead of raw performance, I suspect that the CPU guys will continue to upgrade and add features. For example, a next-generation interconnect for storage devices. More PCIe lanes will also be added, and I reckon that we may see PCIe 4.0 or even something totally new.
On the graphics side, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we're going to see DirectX 13 with new features and increased bare-metal access. AMD and Nvidia are still duking it out, of course. GPUs will have roughly double their current transistor count, hitting almost 16 billion transistors. As with the CPU, frequencies will continue to pose a problem simply because there just isn't enough room for big heatsinks on a graphics card without consuming more expansion slots. For enthusiast-level graphics, both AMD and Nvidia will likely go to some form of closed-loop liquid cooling, but not necessarily in the same manner as how AMD did it with the Fury X. The Fury X essentially came in two parts, which made it difficult for customers to install. Some customers had to play Tetris with the innards of their enclosures, while others had to upgrade to larger enclosures altogether.
Expect graphics cards to support multiple 4K displays all around. We may see hints of 8K support, but that isn't going to be likely, as 4K displays are just hitting mainstream and content is still not widely available. Sometimes though, technology does a leap-frog jump and we may see all the 4K content skipped entirely.
The part of the computer that will see the most dramatic improvement going into 2020 is the storage subsystem. SSDs will finally reach the point of an even playing field with HDDs in terms of storage capacity. We're actually moving along really quickly, considering that Samsung just announced a 2.5-inch 16TB SSD. On the other side, Intel recently announced its Point memory technology, aimed at increasing performance by a thousand-fold. Sounds insane, yes? I agree. We will likely see XPoint come to fruition in 2020 in Intel SSDs. Samsung and others will have similar technologies, too. As of today, you can get a 8TB HDD and go to even 10TB for special-use cases. By 2020, we'll see 4TB to 8TB SSDs available—of course we're hoping they'll all be on some insanely fast interface. Oh yeah, and SATA might be dead.
On the display side of things, most displays will still be flat, and many high-end displays will be based on OLED. What about curved displays, you ask? That's a fad. In 2020, I may not even have a traditional display. I may be wearing a high-resolution VR headset that has ultra-high PPI. In the headset, my display can be as big as I want. I can have a virtual display in front of me that stays stationary no matter how I move my head thanks to incredibly high-performance 3D head tracking. A virtual 28-inch display in VR will behave like a real one in front of me, at a "real" virtual distance away from my eyes. And if I wanted to upgrade, well, that's just a matter of dialing in a bigger size in software.
Networking technologies will finally see a boost in 2020. Motherboards today all have 1Gb Ethernet built in, but I think we'll finally start seeing 10GbE solutions at more affordable price points. Motherboards with integrated 10GbE will be available but at a price premium. Considering that Comcast recently announced 2Gb fiber service to the home for consumers, Google Fiber and others like Verizon FIOS won't be far behind. And at these "consumer" speeds, 1Gb Ethernet won't cut it anymore.
Everything else in and around the CPU will remain largely the same.
